My predictions My thoughts and predictions on technology and business, and sometimes strong ones at that

Facebook is where I have more noise than any other social site, twitter may even tie facebook at amount of sheer content I receive in my feed. With regards to the ratio of what I care about to what I see facebook is a lot better, due to their news feed versus live feed. However, their news feed is still very often off. I wrote some time back about web 3.0, and how essentially showing what I want to see is what the web will become. You’ll take the vast amount of content and distill it into what I want to see. People seem to be taking very half-hazard shots at it and its quite a let down.

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I often encounter people whether at my office or at other places of employment that are distraught after getting an earful from a manager from some problem arising. The problem usually isn’t in their control, and therefore they don’t understand why they get heat for this. Most managers though do actually understand when issues come up, however what they don’t appreciate is late notice, lack of problem solving, and dictating what should be done next.

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I have a tendency of really latching onto very simple ideas. Typically these ideas don’t require complex engineering to make them happen. This is not to say the engineering is not important, but more so that it is some variation of engineering feats that have been done before. The reason I tend to like these over more complex engineering that really makes something better is that making something better is typically a marginal improvement. When it’s a marginal improvement it’s a lot harder to sell.

With marginal improvements you have to:

1. Convince the customer it’s not good enough today
2. Convince the customer that you’re better
3. Convince the customer you’re worth the headache of changing

While a lot of companies focus solely on taking an existing problem and solving it better than someone else has, I have my doubts about how reproducible this model is. If I’m a large company with lots of resources I’m going to keep iterating and improving myself, which means a smaller company really has to have some magic bullet that will displace me.

In contrast if I address a problem that hasn’t been solved my life instantly becomes a lot easier. I no longer have an argument of something not being good enough today, it becomes a question of value and how much its worth to solve the problem. Haggling over price is a conversation I’d rather have than trying to justify value and convince a customer they’ve been wrong in their choice for so many years.

Over the coming days I’m going to be posting a few of these examples/ideas and why I like them. Many of them are still being thought through, and while as I sort them out, I’m generally happy to publish high points about them. The even bigger key here is that success is typically in the execution and less so in the idea, though even then I’d prefer to execute on something that has less battles than something that from the onset has more. By doing something that is being done today you get no advantages of penetrating the market.

The web is becoming saturated. It’s no longer the pimply faced 20 somethings living in their mom’s basements that are the key users and the source of most of the traffic on the web. Now you have communities for pregnant moms, sites for elderly widows looking to date, and social sites for kids from the time they’re able to talk. So now that the web is hitting its saturation point of types of people interacting it becomes a critical issue to take advantage of those users and get them to do more.

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There’s a continual shift that seems to be happening on whether contextual advertising is better than behavioral. It seems that most people are becoming bigger and bigger on behavioral, and assuming that contextual has reached it’s peak. After meeting with a company that at first started to do both, blurring the lines, taking advantage of each when they had appropriate data it started to become clear that they more so have their place and time. Behavioral and Contextual shouldn’t be direct competitors.

I’ve thought for some considerable time now about Twitter and how I feel it actually has more value than facebook with regards to advertising. The difference is context. However, I want to take a moment to look at it from a different angle. There is another key factor that drives the value of the network and the way you can monetize it, The authenticity of the network.

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I’ve done some recent advising for someone working on a site that’s of a social nature. The site is intended in some form to motivate users, the initial thought on this was to define a lot of rules, and send automated messages to users. To me this approach felt very 1990’s. So assuming that were true, then comes the question of how do you motivate users? Read the rest of this entry »

Three times in recent years I’ve had to micromanage others. Though probably in the contrary form to what you would expect. Most people think of micromanagement as their manager wanting to know every detail about their day, and be involved in every minute task. In most cases this form of micromanagement is never received well. Generally my feelings are that if I have to micromanage you, you don’t belong in the role you’re in, though I suppose exception cases may exist.

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Most of my working career has been in what many would call an enterprise environment. Corporate structure well in place at most of them and in those cases any development followed closely to a waterfall methodology. You laid out requirements strictly and then built to those requirements. You essentially had nothing to show until you got to the end product.

Having been in the valley for several years and interacting with some startups and in other settings, I’ve seen a very opposite mindset. The “release early, release often” concept. First you never have clear requirements when dealing with anything a startup should be tackling, if it’s a very clear easy to solve problem, then someone else will have already tackled it. If you’re doing something new, which you should be you can’t gauge how users react, until you actually have something in front of them.

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